Truth be known, I'm glad to be back--even though it'll probably mean more work and less time for me. Oh, well.
Interestingly, one of the categories--of which there were many for those who chose to read 'em--on both the Don't Start the War and the Stop the War threads was one entitled Aftermath of the War. This still exists and can be viewed in the Stop the War thread header. Makes for interesting reading!
As I recall, several SI writers, myself included, aptly predicted Iraq would very much become like Israel, that the end result would become more, not less, terrorism. This has happened. Worse, many of the Afghani gains now seem as though fading due to the inattention from consequences of the Iraqi War and subsequent unwanted occupation.
So what do I think will ultimately happen? How do we turn a negative into a positive? Here's some thoughts.
I predict Iraq ultimately will get carved into two nations. One nation will include a Kurd, Sunni and Shite combo; whereas the other will become a nation mostly of Shites who'll rule similarly to how Iran is presently governed.
If a democracy of any kind is to result in the region, I think a two-state solution will become necessary and that such a democracy could reside within the combo nation. A separate Shite nation from Iraq could become a bargaining chip for better diplomacy with Iran, and the Turks would be satisfied so long as the Kurds don't get their own separate nation.
Involving Iran in such negotiations would result in a positive step for U.S.-Iranian relations. And who knows, perhaps Iran would even cede some of its waterway access to the new Shite nation so that the new combo Kurd/Sunni/Shite nation could also maintain waterway access.
I further predict an oil arrangement will eventually come under the guidance of the United Nations, not the United States. If the U.S. insists on a major role here, never will there be the possibility of peace!
The U.S. president will also have to communicate with Palestinian-elected leader Arafat, and thus work toward a bullypulpit solution among the Israelis. Also, relations with Syria should be normalized in consideration to greater independence and self-determination for Lebanon. Further, the U.S. president should also use the bullypulpit to assure movement toward greater human rights among the Saudis and in the smaller Arab kingdoms.
Unfortunately, I don't think any of the above will happen or even come close to happening under a Republican Administration. A GOP policy most likely will remain hard-nosed and beneficial only to those closely economically tied with it.
Moreover, the U.S. should take the lead in sponsoring international forums that highlight how jobs and fair trade, economic opportunity, if you will, are preferable to a life of terrorism. Such forums should also openly and self-critically, discuss the many issues that actually breed terrorism, and maybe even highlight the value of respect and tolerance for differences among religous beliefs. In other words, think with an educated mind instead of a military mind.
In order to move forward perhaps a few steps backward may be necessary. But most of all, the U.S. must be willing to embrace the notion that something new is in the mill, that there is another way, and not try to force the sameoldism that a lot of people in the world hate down the throats of those who live in Third World nations.
Just a few late-night thoughts.
Anyway, peace, Laz! Peace!!! |
