Is it reasonable to expect $100 millions in sales in 2004!
THAT is a LOT of money and it is the USA sales expected by UBS-Chovav, then go to $180 millions in 2005!
It is 80% growth on top, that is a very good selling and growth, for how long could it keep growing at 80% per year? that is the question.
Ok, they grow 100% in 2006 and voila they are selling $360 millions, take the marketing expenses, research, gross manufacturing (Dna took the manufacturing, not xoma idle plant, cause they will charge xoma for it)... at the end there will be $90 millions for xoma GROSS!... but probably only $60 millions clean for xoma...too high Dna take? ok, let xoma with $70 millions (no, I do not cede more, otherwise you think Dna is the Salvation Army!!!),
...ok, Dna is the Salivation Army, let xoma take CLEAN $80 millions...divided by 160 million shares, not reasonable?, ok, divided by 110 millions, no!, more lenient enough!
...ok currrent 80 million shares, just not a single new share from and/or for castello till 2007...
...$1 dollar selling per share, let xoma expenses cool down (sure)pipeline to go nice and easy (neat) and xoma earns CLEAN $0.50 per share in 2007, give it a reasonable PE of 20, and you have...
...$10 per share in 01-01-2007
Fully price for Fda approval...AND sales 'till 2007
That is the "minimum" outcome, if you want 100% growth in sales as "minimum" !
I take any shares at $5 or below, as long as there is not a single share issue till 2008 !!! |
