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Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004
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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (6048)11/1/2003 9:50:58 PM
From: American Spirit  Read Replies (2) of 10965
 
New Hampshire depends on the media story. The media has touted Dean's larger leads in some polls but not reported Kerry's catching up in others. Neither have they repotred on Kerry's national lead in two polls. They report Kery has fallen. So it sets him up to be the comeback kid.

That raises the bar for Dean. Now dean has to win by a large margin. No one is expecting Kerry to even be close, so if he loses by only 5% he actually wins. Same thing happened with Clinton in NH in 1992. No one remembers Tsongas won it, just the comeback kid 8% behind. Clinton's second place finish propelled him to victory. Ironically.

In this case Kerry must make it very close to "win". 9% behind wouldn't do it, he needs at least 6% behind or less. And if he ties or wins, Dean is maybe fatally wounded. Then the news story becomes, whatever happened to Dean's momentum? It's gone. All of a sudden Kerry gets the front page of Newsweek and Time instead of Dean. Kery is the talk of the talkshows. They talk about his military experience and how 100% right he was about the war etc.

That's worth 10% in the national polls which may be what it takes to win the nomination. Dont count out Kerry for one minute. He's smarter than Dean and more experienced. Notice how many embarrassing gaffes and flipflops dean has made. Kerry hasn't made a single one. right now there's this silly notion out there that Dean is "clear" and Kerry is not. Actually, not true at all. dean's the least clear of any of the major candidates.
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