' 'Neither-Nor' Venezuela Voters Are Major Poll Force
Tue Oct 14, 8:08 AM ET
By Magdalena Morales
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela may appear split between
feuding followers and foes of leftist President Hugo Chavez, but an
increasing number of voters say they are sick of politics and
unimpressed by both sides.
These "ni-nis" (neither-nors), as they are known in Spanish, represent a
powerful uncommitted force that could influence the result of future
elections, including a possible referendum next year on the populist
president's rule.
"I look at both sides and feel I'm in the middle. The opposition doesn't
deliver, but the president also promises lots of things and thousands of
young people are without jobs," said 21-year-old law student Rosemary
Perez. She dismissed both sides as "opportunists."
Other Venezuelans express similar disillusionment after nearly two
years of unrelenting turmoil that has included a botched coup against
Chavez and a general strike that pushed the world's No. 5 oil exporter
deep into recession.
As high inflation and unemployment squeeze a population where the
majority already live in poverty, many people say they are too busy
making ends meet to pay attention to politics.
"I am tired of everything ... I don't think anyone can turn this around,"
said Yulisbeth Carrillo, a sales assistant. But she added she would like
to see Chavez go.
The "neither-nor" voters are complicating the scene as Chavez'
opponents prepare their latest bid to try to vote him out of office in a
referendum. Opinion polls taken in September showed this group
represented between 35 percent and 43 percent of the voting population.
But in a threatening trend for Chavez, the same polls indicated that
around 60 percent of these "neither-nor" voters would cast their ballots
against him in a referendum.
"The 'neither-nors' are key. The leader of the future will have to come
from this section or really woo their support," said Luis Vicente Leon of
leading pollster Datanalisis.
WAY OUT OF CRISIS
Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and re-elected in mid-2000, scornfully
rejects the polls as biased and predicts he will win any referendum.
Opposition leaders are aiming for a possible vote in late February. After
an earlier referendum petition was rejected as flawed last month by
electoral authorities, opposition forces plan to hold a fresh nationwide
collection of pro-poll signatures later this month or in early November.
Foes of the president say his self-styled "revolution" blending left-wing
ideals with fiery nationalism is dragging the oil-rich country toward
Cuba-style communism. He dismisses his opponents as foreign-backed
"oligarchs" fighting to preserve their wealth and privileges.
"People are tired, weary and frightened. They want a way out," said
Oscar Schemel, whose Hinterlaces consultancy surveyed political
trends in September.
While they criticize the government, uncommitted voters also doubt
whether the opposition leaders -- a mixed bag of old-time politicians and
new anti-government activists -- can produce a viable strategy for the
nation.
Among factors that propelled Chavez to the presidency in 1998 was a
deep popular rejection of the traditional political parties and the
governments they formed.
Their inability to translate Venezuela's oil riches into better lives for all of
the population gave many voters a jaundiced view of Venezuela's
45-year-old democracy.
But now, many of the same voters are taking Chavez to task for
failing to deliver on election promises to eliminate poverty, crime and
unemployment.
PARTIES MAKING A COMEBACK?
The recent polls show his popularity has fallen to around 35 percent,
compared with the 80 percent he enjoyed during his election heyday.
There are even signs some voters are returning to the same
discredited parties that Chavez routed in 1998.
"More and more Venezuelans feel it is essential to get Chavez out of
power and they see the political parties as the best prepared to do
that," Leon said.
A Datanalisis survey showed support for the social democratic
Accion Democratica (AD) opposition party -- portrayed by Chavez
as a byword for past corruption -- has risen to 9.6 percent from three
percent in 1999.
The Christian Democrat Copei, like AD a remnant of the past,
Proyecto Venezuela and tiny newcomer Primero Justicia, have also
recovered in the ratings.
But Chavez's ruling Fifth Republic Movement still enjoys the biggest
level of support -- 18 per cent.
And many analysts say Chavez, even if he loses the referendum, could
still win a future presidential election unless his foes find a strong
consensus candidate. '
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