We'll see... Should I take the umbrella? -g-
I want to see good numbers getting really sold into.
Then, I want a break of that trend line, with no immediate snap back.
I'll keep buying long, long dated leap puts on record low VXN. When this
ends, riding these puts will be a lot of fun. You may not get them as cheap
as they are now, when we get a confirmation of trend change.
The market is running on record low interest rates. They are sure the Fed
will keep them low, so they are not selling bonds. Now, there are other
risks for bonds, such as inflation, especially if 7% GDP growth has any truth to it
(I think it's fabricated, but what the heck - it always was).
In other words, I want to see the next leg in bond bear market. THEN,
we'll have some fun. When the next decline starts, the Fed will be unable
to stop it, because nobody will trust them. Everybody will run through the
exit door, away from USD assets - bonds, stocks, and the dollar.
Meanwhile, bonds are manipulated explicitly by the Fed "policy". And,
they are the largest market. So, we have to see bonds break before we see
anything else. A break above 4.62% on 10-year will have very serious
consequences for these markets. Let's see if they can keep 150 Trillion
dollar market at bay. My bet is, they can't. |
