| Hello, Michael. There will be no partition, at least not voluntarily. Too many Shi'ia do not want to join with Iran, for one thing. For another, Kurdistan will not be tolerated on any terms, for the foreseeable future. It is a threat to too many states. The Sunni Iraqis will not cease to pursue a unified Iraq because we leave. Indeed, those who would fight against the Ba'athist now would fight with them then. Thus, the question is simple: either we achieve our goals, more or less, or the country descends into civil war. We will probably need to raze Fallujah and/or Tikrit before things are over. Regardless, the key is breaking the back of the resistance by impeding command and control, interdicting weapons, and disrupting money supplies. If we can severely reduce the level of attacks, then we must retain a defense presence, at a lower troop level, of course, aimed at reassuring all factions that the Ba'athists will not arise again, and that a unified and constitutional Iraq will survive long enough to have a fighting chance. If you believe, as I do, that the Sunnis have mostly had it, and want a normalized society, the goal is achievable. If you think that the Ba'athists are in a position to mobilize evermore opposition, then I am afraid the situation is doomed. But you offer interesting suggestions, even if they strike me as unviable. |
