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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mathemagician who wrote (54607)11/4/2003 9:03:40 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
>the last 4 years were not exactly "normal market conditions".

I think you repeated this claim a couple of times. I would be a bit leery to call something "not normal market" in the hindsight. It is very easy to discard large time periods by just saying "oh, this is bear market, I/you would (should?) have shorted there", "oh, this was a bubble, I/you would have sold there". It is much more difficult to do something in real time as you demonstrated with your trendline example.

For example, take the situation right now. Is it "normal market" or not? Is it a "new bubble"? Bull market? Bear market rally? It is quite impossible to say now, but it will be very clear in the hindsight. Personally, I don't care. I just look at valuations and buy or sell accordingly.

>Would you say that a theory is invalid because it
>performed poorly between 1928 and 1931?

I would not answer for John. I think that "Gorilla Game" may work for people and it may even work well if valuation estimates are added to it. However, I wonder if the market may has changed since 1980's when Intel or Microsoft appeared and whether Gorillas are nowadays overvalued for quite long periods of time because of the "irrational exuberance" of large investor class. Which means for me that valuation needs be added to make good gains with GG. Others may think differently.

I am not very interested in academic discussion and backtesting GG with and without valuation, since I would never use the "without valuation" variant in any case.

Jurgis
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