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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (54608)11/4/2003 9:28:59 AM
From: Mathemagician  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
I think you repeated this claim a couple of times. I would be a bit leery to call something "not normal market" in the hindsight. It is very easy to discard large time periods by just saying "oh, this is bear market, I/you would (should?) have shorted there", "oh, this was a bubble, I/you would have sold there". It is much more difficult to do something in real time as you demonstrated with your trendline example.

I am not suggesting that one would be able to identify makret conditions that are "not normal" in real-time. What I am suggesting is that if one were to judge the success or failure of a strategy using a time period that is significantly shorter than the stated time horizon of the strategy then one should at least insist that market conditions during that period be something approaching "normal".

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