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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: stockman_scott who wrote (30971)11/4/2003 9:55:20 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 89467
 
1.8% qtr-over-qtr GDP growth is hardly booming

defense still dominating
as long as we are in a war, two things are gauranteed
1. defense spending will make the economy look stronger than it is
2. federal deficits will take us closer to the critical tipping point where rates will rise

Roach puts it best when he says we are in a tough battle of strong stimulus pushing cyclicals to overcome weak structurals

the only trouble is that the cycle has been transformed
case in point: labor outsourcing

I believe we have a tepid cyclical push going on
the chief beneficiary is China and India, where jobs are being created
the labor outsourcing has entered a dangerous new era
whereby high-skilled service jobs are exiting the nation
why not? no health benefit issues with China and India

AMERICA HAS PRICED ITSELF OUT OF THE WORLD ECONOMY
dollar, taxes, health, labor, environment

today Challenger & Gray labor report underscores the point
Oct figures show 125% increase in layoffs
total of 174,000 layoffs announced
totally contradicts any 7% GDP nonsense number
you are in good shape if you work for a defense contractor or speak Chinese
Americans are starting to disbelieve in USGovt numbers

if reflation efforts succeed in every area but profit margins, household budgets, and wages, then what have we gained ???

this is exactly what I expect to happen
shrinking corp profits, eroding household discretionary budgets, and declining real wages

/ jim
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