You like it or not you know I can predict the market- It goes no where without me.
Sox has taken out 377 it was one of my targets yesterday. I am prepared to take on anyone including Abby Cohan that we need to see a correction of minimum of 5-10% within 2 to 3 weeks for markets to form a base for an assault on higher levels. If you look at Equity market risk premium for US since 1981 it is an all time high of 4. In 1981 it did go up to 3.5 but you all know what happened in 1987 (no comparison intended). This is the most sophisticated indicator used by the ultimate in money management, likes of Soros and Buffets. With all my predictions coming through still there is a tendancy to question my basic analysis, you still look up to Abbey and others for market direction but go through 5,000 replies on this thread and you will see that the targets I set are met. I would like someone to find where I have been wrong and I will explain where I have been wrong with my model on that particular call
Lets compare this equity market risk premium with that of UK, Singapore, French, German and Japan. The risk premium is 2,25 for UK, 2 for Singapore, French is 1.9, German is 3.75 and Japan is 3.25. My model tells me that US markets have deviated 28% from expected risk premium level, I will be comfortable if this deviation reduces to 10%. At 7,800 market will have that kind of cushion. We are fundametalist we can be momentarily wrong but ultimatley we will be right. I have seen how Byron Weil and Abbey Cohan run their models and I believe that my input and base if far more sophisticated and far more wider. Since you always are interested to highlight market movement everyday I thought it is important for me to let you know that I believe so much in my model that although I will not stand infront of the market but I will not deviate from its findings.
I will only become a bull if there are BULLISH fundamentals intact. Why don't you look at last night when I predicted market will go higher at opening, will only break when soxx will break 377 support and that is exactly what has happened today. Fundamentally the markets is over valued and such a market is a very flimsy market. Let it go high and we will short it at the right level. We have tightned the noose around the market, the market is not going anywhere without us, I am not going to loose in this market on the long or the short side. |
