Hi Eric! ... Embedded Java development by Novell, I hope not!
I don't know for sure that Novell is or isn't doing anything with embedded Java, but don't believe it would be in our best interest for Novell to invest any development effort to embed Java.
I believe that many of the posts on this thread over the past few weeks are wandering away from the real value of Novell's technology, existing customer base, and probable future revenue. I would like to offer some different perspectives on two topics that I think are not well understood ... Java, and BorderManager.
I believe the value of Novell's technology, customer base, and potential future revenue is directly related to the implementation, management, enhancement, and usage of computer networks. Both of these 'misunderstood' topics play an important role in the assessment of the future value of Novell's stock.
First, Java:
According to MSFT, Java is merely a 'language' and they appear to be engaged in a effort to 'embrace, then hijack' the Java development initiative started by Sun a few years ago ... to minimize the potential for developers to escape from MSFT's 'Roach Motel' that results from the requirement of MSFT Runtime support.
According to JavaSoft (and Sun, IBM, everyone but MSFT) Java is a RUNTIME implementation with associated support that includes class libraries, APIs, and 2 flavours of a programming language ... Java Source for people, and Byte Code for computers. It is this RUNTIME implementation that is a candidate to be 'embedded' ... it is possible to do this right now ... using only some very inexpensive ROM Chips. The hardware unit cost is probably under $5 ... the more important issue is the licensing fee that will be required by JavaSoft. By using slightly more expensive EPROM chips the 'embedded' code can be 'flashed' (upgraded) with a small program that can be distributed by FTP over the Internet.
If Java is to be embedded, it is more likely that the Hardware companies will be the ones to do it ... if Sun embeds Java, Intel will probably be close behind them. It is this concern that I think is causing the FUD generation from MSFT.
According to JavaSoft >> ALL Java licensees << agreed to provide the Java RUNTIME support ... including MSFT. MSFT says that it did not agree to provide RUNTIME support, and will shortly discontinue supplying Java runtime support ... so that any Java programs developed using MSFT tools will run >> ONLY << on MSFT supplied Runtime systems.
IMO this is a 'change of plan' for MSFT ... they are now giving up on their original plan to 'embrace and extend' ... probably because they have come to the conclusion that they cannot get ahead of the development efforts of the other company's Java implementation and take control the way they did with Spreadsheets and WordProcessors in the past ... or like they did with Borland's compilers several years before.
If Java is embedded and widely deployed, it will create a bonaza for Novell because of the plethora of new devices that will need to be incorporated into the expanding network infratructure. If Java is NOT embedded ... there is no real loss to Novell, not even significant lost opportunity ... the same networking needs will still need to be supported ... the new revenue potential might be slightly reduced or delayed.
Now on to BorderManager, here is a quote from Novell's paper on BorderManager ...
"Shipping as a standalone software suite solution, BorderManager works in concert with existing networking products--including Novell and non-Novell technologies--to deliver an effective border solution between internal network resources and the Internet."
Here is the URL for the whole paper:
novell.com
BorderManager does NOT pre-req IntraNetware or Netware, it's most notable pre-req is an Intel Processor. The minimum hardware configuration to install BorderManager has a price point of less than $1,000. BorderManager's likely competitors are more likely to be the Hardware suppliers of 'ROUTER' products ... 3COM, Cisco, Bay ... there is no product that I know of that comes close to the capabilities of BorderManager.
BoderManager is intended to be installed as a separate, standalone sytem/box used to manage the data between public Internets and private Intranets ... it has the ability to cache frequently referenced internet data to both improve end user performance and reduce public network traffic load, filter data packets, improve security beyond what a 'firewall' implemtation can provide, 'tunnel' private data flow through the public Internet (Virtual Private Network), and improve overall managability of distributed data ... while reducing the cost of the network resouces at the same time (mostly through reduction of traffic on expensive lines).
BorderManager is very likely to be a totally new source of revenue to Novell ... probably taking some revenue opportunity away from the Router suppliers. BorderManager will probably assist in making IntraNetware sales as well ... due to it's links to Novell's other Network technologies that are packaged in IntraNetware.
BorderManager is supposed to start shipping this month.
I hope this helps at least a little.
PS ... I didn't sell my shares on this last runup. I'm not sure about the 'buyout potential' ... I continue to believe that Novell is much more valuable to Intel than anyone else ... and that in a 'co-operative' buyout that Novell is probably worth approximately $10 Billion, possibly more ... which would be a pretty good profit if it actually happened. |
