A "Pro" tells us how he sees it. THE NOTE
Dowd also warned that President Bush could fall behind the Democratic nominee in the spring: "First, this is just the nature of a divided and polarized electorate. Second, once the Democratic nominee is all but assured, that person will receive a deluge of positive press at least for a couple of weeks, and this will temporarily be reflected in public opinion polls."
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The Bush-Cheney campaign released an internal memo from Bush-Cheney '04 Chief Strategist Matt Dowd that looks at where the president stands with one year to go before the election.
The memo, to Campaign Chairman Marc Racicot and Campaign Manager Ken Mehlman, was yet another from Dowd that is cautionary about declining poll numbers and approval ratings and even goes so far as to predict worse numbers in the next few months. The campaign has consistently maintained that these polling numbers put President Bush right where incumbent presidents historically have been at this point in the game — and are not the Chicken Little scenarios that some political commentators make them out to be.
On the president's approval numbers: "One major reason why President Bush's approval numbers have had such lasting power is that a majority of the public sees this President as honest and trustworthy, a strong leader, and believes that he cares about them. A second important reason for the sustained nature of these positive numbers in the wake of consistent negative media coverage concerning Iraq and the economy is that the public sees the president as presenting a clear and positive message on dealing with the public's concerns."
On a close election in 2004: "Though at this time this is good news for a campaign headed into an election year, this race is likely to be very tight and go down to the wire. The country is very evenly divided, and with Democratic partisans lined up solidly against President Bush, this race will stay very close."
Dowd also warned that President Bush could fall behind the Democratic nominee in the spring: "First, this is just the nature of a divided and polarized electorate. Second, once the Democratic nominee is all but assured, that person will receive a deluge of positive press at least for a couple of weeks, and this will temporarily be reflected in public opinion polls."
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