SRDX - SurModics - Biotech IPO Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : SRDX - SurModics - Biotech IPO

SRDX 27.03

+0.3%

1:24 PM EDT

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To: Will Preska who started this subject	11/4/2003 4:53:22 PM
From: Lance Bredvold	of 84

An unabashedly positive outlook from MBA investor on Yahoo. I post it here because it lists a lot of the positives and MBA has proven to offer a lot of clear insight. Despite the fact that I disagree with his predicted PE ratio's based on Graham's 8.5 + 225% growth rate (the 25% was a number used at one point--don't know if it remains his prediction. My argument is that while we are seeing a 70 or 80% growth during the 2 quarters before and after now, it is unlikely to be consistently as high as 25% in the 5 years beginning in later 2004). I have meant to accumulate a bunch of posts and articles here which will serve to educate a newcomer to SRDX without necessitating perusal of the thousands of posts on Yahoo. by: mba_investor (42/M/Minneapolis, MN) Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 11/04/03 10:36 am Msg: 6784 of 6816 << Those investors (like me) who don't want to stick around for the long haul, will be dumping their shares and moving on. >> There is a difference between "speculation" and "investing" --> and if you aren't in it for the long haul then you are not* an investor but a speculator. Speculators are betting that they know how the market will vote in the short-term better than everyone else. Winning this game is luck - because the market prices in known information and reacts wildy to unknown information you can't possibly predict. (and the market doesn't always understand the news it is reacting too! ie. thrombois rates for Cypher are 10X BETTER than bare metal stents and yet the bashers who possess no legal or medical knowledge are talking up lawuits) Investors are betting that the assets they buy (shares of a company) are undervalued and/or will appreciate in the future. I liken the current situation to a poker game where a big bluffer (the shorts in this case) continue to hammer away at the share price by selling shares they do not own. You could fold your cards and lose the ante. (and in some tax situations this could be the correct thing to do.) Or you could double up because this is what you are holding in your hand: - A company with $82 million in cash/equity - A strong 6-year record of 30%+ compound earnings growth - Sales / revenue / and cash flow that will be bigger next year than this year - Hundreds of products from over a dozen of the world's best medical companies in the pipeline. - A slice of the $500 million micro-array market slide market (SRDX produces coatings / protein slides) with dominant leader Amersham - and this market is growing fabulously as well do to genomics research. - A blockbuster diabetes treatment that will be MUCH bigger than stents - coating insulin producing cells for transplant - will show the world that SRDX tissue engineered coatings *when human trials start on this the share price will skyrocket from - you guessed it - speculators. -Over 40 patents (which as intellectual property are extremely valuable but not calculated in the book value of the company) There's more. But again, drug eluting stents are just THE BEGINNING of a revolutionary change in medical care combining drugs with medical devices. Surmodics is well-positioned because the coatings they have control the AMOUNT of drug elution and the TIMING of drug elution and are market-proven in blood, tissues, etc. marcpw, please arrange for the marriage counselor. As dark as it may look in the short term for this stock I am calling the shorts bluff and buying more shares. My volume of buying will not affect the share price. But when the shorts have to buy back over 40% of the float it will!"

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