IC-equipment forecast lowered amid lithography shortfall
By Mark LaPedus
Silicon Strategies
11/04/2003, 3:00 PM ET
siliconstrategies.com
NEW TRIPOLI, Pa. -- Sluggish sales for lithography gear, capital spending delays, and other factors have caused one research firm to lower its chip-equipment forecast by nearly 50 percent in 2003. On the bright side, the chip-equipment market is expected to rebound and grow by 21 percent in 2004 over 2003, according to The Information Network, a research firm based in New Tripoli.
The Information Network originally projected that the chip-equipment market would grow by 7.3 percent in 2003. The market has begun its long-awaited recovery--albeit a small upswing, according to the report from The Information Network.
Now, however, the firm projects that the chip-equipment sector will grow by only 3.8 percent in 2003, due to the poor performance of the lithography business, which makes up 26 percent of the total equipment market, according to the market research firm. The lithography sector will drop 4.6 percent in 2003, dragging down the entire market, according to the report.
"We had anticipated a growth rate of 7.3 percent for equipment in early 2003," said Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network. "But semiconductor manufacturers are continuing to under invest despite dramatic growth in its markets in 2003, pegged to increase 14.2 percent. These companies would rather risk losing market share than spend money that would lower their profits and affect stock prices--a pitiful situation--which has led us to reduce those forecasts nearly in half to 3.8 percent."
In fact, Q1 2003 over Q1 2002 growth of 11.6 percent gave way to a disastrous Q2 when sales dropped 19.3 percent, because of semiconductor manufacturers' preference of profits over investments and capital spending, he said. Q3 revenues came in at about parity with Q3 2002, paving the way for a strong growth trend that will last through 2005, he added.
The new ITRS roadmap supports smaller geometries, new materials, and an increase in wafer size to 300-mm, which will drive the capital spending ratio of device manufacturers back above 20 percent of semiconductor sales, the report said. Demand for 200-mm equipment to upgrade existing fabs of top tier customers and foundries to 0.13-micron and copper, combined with dramatically renewed strength in Taiwan should be the drivers of the improved order trend, it added.
Complete recovery will take place in 2004 when the equipment market will grow 21 percent, buoyed by very aggressive buildup in semiconductor capacity, according to the report. |
