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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 288.52

-0.3%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12364)	11/4/2003 8:28:23 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) of 95420

>> finding the peak of the bubble when it gets here Don, I think it would take a severe disappointment to cause a big drop at this time. At each new mini-peak, we get a several-week selloff. How can a bubble develop in such a skeptical context ? Each successive 100 point rise in nasdaq has been followed by a significant retrace. With a couple months of charge and retreat at each resistance point. So I think we now have anticipatory upward valuation. Which might get validated or negated by future reports. And it seems to me that stocks are migrating to hands that are willing to be patient in waiting for earnings to catch up. This is not the same as the famous bubble of 2000, when stocks were bought on margin as lottery tickets. My funds are still 100% invested. I am expecting to sell all when nasdaq reaches 2050 or maybe a little lower. I think that will be a fairly difficult level to breach. Being a multi-year high. I really don't expect your "tongue-in-cheek" level of 2300 to be reached soon. Maybe in a year. Sarmad

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