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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 269.46-0.2%Feb 3 3:59 PM EST
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To: David Semoreson who wrote (3955)8/11/1997 1:23:00 PM
From: Robert Mayo   of 213184
 
A couple of days ago, one guy commented here that he wouldn't establish a new long or short position in Apple because he couldn't figure out the business any more. He had a point.

We know OS 8 sales are brisk. We know that hardware sales were up 30% last week partially as a result of all the positive news about the new OS, plus the generally positive spin on the Boston expo. But we don't know if that momentum can be sustained. Remember, a coordinated, national advertising campaign probably won't kick off 'til Fall.

Who will the new CEO be? Will he want another reorganization? Will he want to throw a bunch of expenses into the September quarter? Maybe, perhaps most likely, he'll want to book a profitable September to give consumers confidence in the company going into the XMAS sales season.

We think we know about the Micosoft cash infusion, but buried in the details are some royalty (yes, "royalty") payments for purloined Apple technology. Most analysts seem disposed to dismiss this as chump change, but a couple of Mac-friendly web sites have speculated the numbers are on the same order as the much-ballyhooed $150 million investment. Fact is, we probably won't have any clear visibility into all this until we see a couple of quarterly earnings reports.

Then there are the clones licenses. Apple has an offer on the table. Will the cloners sign? Will Apple negotiate down? How much income will Apple get from clone licenses? Stay tuned.

Lots of questions. Tough company to analyze right now.

Bob



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