The "..non-CNN, New York Slimes and (W)itch-spin.." TRUTH finally starts coming out...
Republicans Gain in Critical Swing States
By WILL LESTER Associated Press Writer
November 5, 2003, 3:10 PM EST
WASHINGTON -- Republicans have made significant gains in crucial swing states, in large part because of President Bush's post-Sept. 11 stewardship, according to an extensive analysis of American voters.
The percentage of registered voters who identified themselves as Republicans increased in Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa -- three states that Democrat Al Gore captured in the 2000 election. At the same time, the GOP experienced a hefty gain in Arkansas, while grabbing the edge in Tennessee and Florida, according to the analysis by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.
In Florida, the decisive state three years ago, Democrats held a five-point advantage leading up to the 2000 contest. Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, 37 percent of Floridians identify themselves as Republicans, 36 percent as Democrats.
The swing toward the GOP could make it easier for Bush in next year's election, with fewer competitive states in play, and harder for the eventual Democratic nominee to unseat the president.
"Republicans are in much better shape than they were four years ago," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.
The poll, including a review of 80,000 interviews over the last three years, found Republican gains among every major voting bloc except blacks, with the greatest gains among Hispanics in the West, white Catholics and white evangelical Protestants.
Those gains were largely because of "the positive impact of Bush" responding to the terrorist attacks, Kohut said. Bush continues to get strong ratings on his handling of the terror threat, even as his support has dropped on other issues such as Iraq and the economy.
Republican gains have pulled the GOP even with Democrats on political affiliation. Just about a third, 31 percent, identified themselves as Republicans and a third, 32 percent, said they were Democrats.
Such gains in party identification can shift rapidly, however. Democrats had a significant advantage in 1992 when Bill Clinton was elected president, but that disappeared in the Republican tidal wave of 1994.
Bush is showing signs of vulnerability, however. His job approval rating was 50 percent, the lowest in polling by Pew since August 2001, just before the terrorist attacks.
"Bush has lost a lot," Kohut said of recent shifts in public opinion. "He's given his party great standing with more people identifying with the Republican Party. But all of a sudden we now have many people saying maybe we should go in another direction."
The public is evenly divided on the question of Bush's re-election when he's tested against an unnamed Democrat, according to the poll. But Bush leads by margins ranging from 6 percentage points to 12 percentage points when matched head-to-head with leading Democratic candidates.
The results are based on a poll of 2,528 adults from July 14-August 5, another poll in mid-October of 1,515 adults and a review of interviews over the past three years. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2 percentage points for the larger sample and 3 percentage points for the October poll.
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