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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 288.52-0.3%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (12389)11/5/2003 6:32:08 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom   of 95420
 
RtS, Certainly when we are talking about the very near term, a G and C could very well happen tomorrow - and more short term weakness may be in the offing, but I have a hard time believing that the NASDAQ will be lower in January than it is today. IMO, we are not at a "blow-off" peak now - we are still going up the left side of the bubble - trying to find the top.

As you know, Sarmad and I have been "bouncing around" numbers of dates and values for the NASDAQ in the near future. While we are just "fooling around" here, let's put up a table which is a simple straight line projection of a couple of date points - and based on that information assume the future will be like the past and make a couple of projections.

This is not serious stuff, but it is one scenario out of many that could happen.

The table below uses the NASDAQ data points of the lows set on 10/9/03 and 3/11/03, and the closing NASDAQ number of today. Based on those numbers, straight line calculations of percentage gain per day can be computed - and then, using the calculated data from 3/11/03 to today's close - dates can be computed as to when we will reach NASDAQ 2050 and 2300. Believe it or not, 2300 is possible this year;-)


-			Total	Days	Pct N	  Projected
-	  NASDAQ   Pct	 Pct   Between	Gain per  Date for
-  Date	  Value	  Chge	Chge	Dates	Day	  N Value
10/09/02  1114.11
03/11/03  1271.47   14	  14	 153	  0.09
11/05/03  1959.37   54	  76	 239	  0.32
      ??  2050.00    5	  84	  15	  0.32	   11/20/03
      ??  2300.00   12	 106	  38	  0.32	   12/29/03

Don
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