What are hot--and cold--IC categories for '04?
Silicon Strategies
11/05/2003, 5:45 PM ET
SAN JOSE--Which chip categories are expected to be hot--or cold--in 2004?
Flash memory, DRAMs, digital signal processors (DSPs) and optoelectronics are all expected to grow by nearly 20 percent or more in 2004 over 2003, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today (November 5, 2003). The trade group also revised its overall chip forecast for 2003 and 2004 (see November 5 story).
Discrete and controllers are projected to show the slowest growth in 2004 over 2003, according to the SIA. Microprocessors, controllers, and other products will show steady growth in 2004.
Flash-memory remains hot. In 2003, this market is expected to grow 42.7 percent to $11.1 billion, grow an additional 36.4 percent to $15.1 billion in 2004, and slow its growth to 2.0 percent to $15.4 billion in 2005. In 2006, Flash is expected to increase 9.0 percent to $16.8 billion in sales.
The DRAM market is in second place. The market is expected to grow 7.9 percent to $16.5 billion in 2003 and 35.0 percent to $22.2 billion in 2004. In 2005, DRAMs are expected to decrease 20.0 percent to $17.8 billion. In 2006, this market will rebound 30.0 percent to $23.1 billion in sales.
The DSP market is forecast to rise 25.9 percent to $6.1 billion in 2003, 27.1 percent in 2004 to $7.8 billion, 19.3 percent to $9.3 billion in 2005, and 7.6 percent to $10.0 billion in 2006.
The optoelectronics market includes laser devices, image sensors, and products that are frequently used in communication applications. In 2003, this market is expected to increase 34.7 percent to $9.1 billion in sales, grow 19.2 percent to $10.9 billion in 2004, 5.0 percent to $11.5 billion in 2005, and 10.0 percent to $12.6 billion in 2006.
In 2003, microprocessors will increase 14.4 percent to $27.3 billion and then are forecast to grow 18.3 percent to $32.3 billion in 2004, 7.6 percent to $34.7 billion in 2005, and 6.0 percent to $36.8 billion in 2006.
Analog is expected to grow 10.0 percent to $26.3 billion in 2003, 15.4 percent to $30.4 billion in 2004, 11.5 percent to $33.9 billion in 2005, and 2.1 percent to $34.6 billion by 2006.
The global logic market includes standard logic, standard cell, field programmable logic devices (FPLD), and a broad variety of application-specific products. In 2003, MOS Logic is expected to grow 15.0 percent to $36.0 billion, increase 15.6 percent in 2004 to $41.6 billion, 11.4 percent to $46.3 billion in 2005 and 2.0 percent to $47.3 billion in 2006.
Discrete components include power transistors and radio frequency (RF) solutions that are found in wireless consumer products. This segment is forecast to grow 5.9 percent to $13.1 billion in 2003. Discretes are then forecast to grow 12.7 percent to $14.7 billion in 2004, 9.3 percent to $16.1 billion in 2005, and 2.4 percent to $16.5 billion in 2006.
The global microcontroller market, driven by consumer and automotive applications, will increase 6.4 percent to $9.9 billion in 2003, and then grow 12.1 percent to $11.2 billion in 2004, 6.0 percent to $11.8 billion in 2005, and 2.0 percent to $12.1 billion by 2006. |
