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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject	11/6/2003 2:13:21 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (3) of 74559

Global Warming in a Kondratieff Winter. Here is an interesting article which I believe captures a lot of salient points. gold-eagle.com One of the reasons that we are not experiencing a 'classical' deflation is that we are not on a gold/commodity standard. If we were, I believe that we would have seen a 1932 type crash. (Where Price in an non-expanding currency goes down to Earnings). Instead we will see a Japan type bear market. (Where Earnings catch up with price in an expanding currency). In order for us not to crash Mr Greenspan has to increase the Money Supply to make up for the wealth destruction caused by mal-investments during the boom. Mr Hommel does a "Change-of-Measure" transformation to re-define the monetary supply in Gold Ozs showing that we are actually experiencing deflation in money supply i.t.o. gold. In short TEOTWAWKI is happening but not as we know it. This is the first K-Cycle winter where the entire world is on Fiat. The DOWJONES/GOLD ratio will approach the 2, or even the 1 level. The question is does GOLD increase in USD (Inflation), or does the Dow Jones go down in USD (Deflation)? Smoke and mirrors from the maestro behind the curtain. -macavity

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