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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 229.41

+1.5%

3:22 PM EST

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (159583)	11/6/2003 2:52:01 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) of 164684

Anyway yes a good jobs number, but is this seasonal hiring do you know? The number this AM was jobless claims, so that's newly unemployed people and the numbers ARE seasonally adjusted, so if there is any seasonal tendency for businesses NOT to fire people, that seasonal effect would be taken out of the statistics. As for expectations for tomorrow, last I saw the consensus was for a 65k rise in non-farm payrolls (vs. 57k last month). But based on the marked decline in job losses in October (look at the 4-week moving avg of jobless claims), I'd bet on the number being a bit better than that. 150k would be a shocker, though. Not that I'd complain, mind you. ;-) BTW, non-farm payroll numbers come in two flavors - SA and Not-SA. The headline number is the seasonally adjusted one. As for CG&C and biases, are you suggesting now that the non-farm payroll numbers aren't reliable? That's funny - a few weeks ago I was suggesting it may be OVERstating job losses as the household survey showed gains while the employer survey (non-farm payrolls) was showing losses. Now you're saying any gains it shows may be the result of bias? Bob

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