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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: LindyBill who wrote (15382)	11/6/2003 3:40:42 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (2) of 793897

There is another factor favoring the GOP as well: the shift in electoral votes after the 2000 census favors the GOP by 7 (5 if they lose Florida): Message 19469170 Under that analysis, if Bush retains every state that the GOP has been consistently winning (and that he won by at least three percentage points in 2000), the Dems. lose automatically merely by losing Florida. If the Dems. manage to hang on the every state they won by three percentage points or more in 2000, and win Florida, the Dems. still lose unless they manage to pick up other "toss-up" states from 2000 (see linked post above). The other five toss-up states (besides Florida) were: Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) New Mexico (5 electoral votes) Oregon (7 electoral votes) New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) Iowa (7 electoral votes) All five of those toss up states are on your list of states with rising GOP registration. And if the Dems. lose all five of those states as well as the 28 states that Bush won by a comfortable margin in 2000, Bush wins even if he loses Florida. I think the Dems. need a complete meltdown in Bush's popularity to pull this off. I'm not saying that can't happen, but so far Bush's core support appears strong.

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