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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 288.52

-0.3%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (12411)	11/6/2003 6:22:11 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95420

RtS, Yes, some very good observations there - one that I think is very important - <<Bottom line: rising rates limit the market’s potential.>> And by the same reasoning, the falling interest rates we have recently experienced have had a lot to do with the market recovery this year. At some point, an inflection point is going to be reached where interest rates do begin to rise which will start the process of putting the brakes on the market rise. This may be sooner than later even thought it may not "fit" Alan Greenspan's desire. Speaking of predictions - the following is sort of ridiculous - <<In the volatile memory chip DRAM market, the SIA is forecasting market growth of 7.9 percent to $16.5 billion in 2003 and 35.0 percent to $22.2 billion in 2004. In 2005, DRAMs are expected to decrease 20.0 percent to $17.8 billion. In 2006, this market will rebound 30.0 percent to $23.1 billion in sales.>> I love it - not only are sales to be 22.2B in 04, but will be 23.1B in 06. These are numbers they change every couple of months, and on top of that, they carry the estimate out to the first decimal place. They can't just say 22B in 04 and 23B in 06 - that is not "precise enough" for them. I can't believe it!!;-) Don

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