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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: AC Flyer who wrote (41013)11/6/2003 6:51:47 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (4) of 74559
 
<Until you can provide alternative data, the US economy will remain nine times the size of the Chinese economy. And, by a logical test that is often referred to as "the tyranny of large numbers", China will not become the world's leading economy in my lifetime, if ever, and certainly not "very soon" as your ignoramus PhD friend claimed.>

ACF, I think that's wrong. For example, Singapore went from being a backwater slum to a top country in a single generation. China, being bigger, could go even faster as they have economies of scale. South Korea did okay too. Same with Taiwan.

China could go faster than all of them. Which would be very impressive.

Also, GDP is an odd thing. We are theoretically poor here, with a rotten GDP, but life is pretty good. There needs to be a purchasing power parity consideration too. Also, quality of life. Also some things figure in GDP but have zero value in that the activity would be better not to exist. Digging holes and filling them in helps GDP for example. Producing bombs then blowing them up is good for GDP but useless [in the case of Vietnam but may yet be useful in the case of Iraq].

I need to investigate China more closely.

It didn't take Britain many decades to go from best of all to an also-ran. Things happen faster these days. Much faster.

Mqurice
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