SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: AC Flyer who wrote (40987)11/6/2003 8:22:19 PM
From: Gulo  Read Replies (4) of 74559
 
I think you need to check your math, AC. Don't forget growth is exponential.

If U.S. GDP growth is 3.5% and China's GDP growth remains 10%, it would take about 38 years for China's GDP to exceed
that of the U.S. If the U.S. GR is 4% and China's is 8%, it would take 58 years. If it's U.S. 4% and China 6%, it
would take 117 years. Either way, people alive today could see it happen.

If you don't believe that, here's the calcs.
U.S. China
GDP(G$) 10.8 1.2
GR 3.5% 10.0%

2004 11.2 1.4
2005 11.6 1.5
2006 12.0 1.6
2007 12.4 1.8
2008 12.8 2.0
2009 13.3 2.2
2010 13.7 2.4
2011 14.2 2.6
2012 14.7 2.9
2013 15.2 3.2
2014 15.8 3.5
2015 16.3 3.9
2016 16.9 4.2
2017 17.5 4.7
2018 18.1 5.1
2019 18.7 5.7
2020 19.4 6.2
2021 20.1 6.8
2022 20.8 7.5
2023 21.5 8.3
2024 22.2 9.1
2025 23.0 10.0
2026 23.8 11.0
2027 24.7 12.1
2028 25.5 13.3
2029 26.4 14.7
2030 27.3 16.1
2031 28.3 17.7
2032 29.3 19.5
2033 30.3 21.5
2034 31.4 23.6
2035 32.5 26.0
2036 33.6 28.6
2037 34.8 31.4
2038 36.0 34.6
2039 37.3 38.0

-g
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News