Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Gulo who wrote (41047)	11/6/2003 8:53:53 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (2) of 74559

>>I think you need to check your math, AC. Don't forget growth is exponential<< I think in this case it would be more accurately described as a geometric, not an exponential, progression. But let's not quibble about that. Your example is arithmetically correct. The question is, is it reasonable? I am sorry to tell you that it is not, and for the following simple reason - the bigger you get, the harder it is to sustain your growth rate - just ask $ill Gates. So, China's economy the same size as the USA's in 38 years? Only in your spreadsheet, not in reality. 58 years? I would assign a low probability to this. 117 years? Sounds about right.

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