As you know, the top I thought I had identified in the COMPX was taken out today.......the SPX top held..
As you also know, those tops were called based heavily on non-EW considerations - mostly technical negative divergences. I made a stab at more EW analysis, trying to relate the size of the 5th wave we are in to the distance travelled by the preceding 1st wave, in a FIB relationship.... I am dropping that attempt, and, IMHO, there is absolutely no way that that can be done.
I still think we are in a final 5th wave up. to complete the large III Wave up from last October 2002., and the range of targets I would look for now....based more heavily on traditional TA...are the following:
SPX...........1)...In this 1060 area, where we are hitting overhead resistance from the May 2002 lows,and where we are retracing about .382FIB of the entire bear market decline......2) in the 1100-10 area, at resistance from the May 2002 highs and Feb 2002 lows (and BTW just below a measured move from a possible July 2002-March 2003 H&S bottom)........
COMPX.....1)..In this 1970-80 area, where we are hitting resistance from the Dec 2001 lows......2).in the 2050-2100 area, which is the next resistance area, corresponding to the January 2002 highs...( note that that would be only about a 25% retracement of the entire bear)
Tomorrow should tell the tale.......As of now........and until/unless I get blown out of the water by FA/employment-report euphoria......I'm still most comfortable with the view that we are topping right here.........g |
