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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (1915)11/7/2003 6:44:08 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
The BOA data is a good find. It's too bad we can't track it weekly though, as it has some IPO and underwriting supply data I'm really keying on right now. Is that featured research offered there regularly?

Note page 7, that only about $1.1B came to market for the week ending 10/22, and only $1.7B was expected for the 10/29 week. I think this light calendar is mainly what has saved the stock market so far. Bears need a multi-billion Google offering right now to swamp the tech sector with supply. May not matter though, if the fund outflows we saw this week persists. Was that a one time Putnam fluke, or the beginning of something?
Message 19474791

Incidently, the biggest underwriting I've spotted this week has been mining company NEM's $1 billion.
biz.yahoo.com
That sector has been as busy as any.

The spread chart: treasuries to BAA, and high yield on page 8 is really illustrative too. The high yield spread is only 3.9% now, and that's as frothy and complacent as at any time in the last decade. For anybody looking for a put like proxy to play widening "junk" spreads, MBI (the credit insurance company) might makes sense. When I listen to their conference calls I always come away with the feeling that they are hiding and burying things. They just feel a bit sleezy. But maybe that's just me <g>.
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