The Truth Behind Dean’s Fund Plan
Dem front-runner wants to clobber his primary rivals
msnbc.com
NEWSWEEK WEB EXCLUSIVE
Nov. 6 — Say this about Howard Dean: The guy doesn’t let past positions slow him down if he concludes that abandoning them will boost his crusade. If Democrats think the only way to defeat a ruthless Yalie is with another ruthless Yalie, then Dean is well on his way to a showdown with George W. Bush.
AS I WRITE, the planet I call “DeanWorld” is conducting an on-line plebiscite to decide whether their hero’s campaign should opt out of the federal public-financing system for the 2004 primary season—even though Dean months ago (before he struck fund-raising gold on the Internet) portrayed adherence to that system as a cardinal virtue.
Campaign Manager Joe Trippi says that Dean will follow the advice of The Dean People—more than 500,000 have registered as supporters so far this year—and that the result is by no means a foregone conclusion. I am waiting with bated breath.
In the meantime, let me say that the immediate reason for opting out of the system has nothing to do with the war against Bush next spring and summer—if Dean gets to wage it. It’s about this winter’s war against Dick Gephardt in Iowa, John Kerry in New Hampshire, and John Edwards and Wes Clark in South Carolina.
Simply put, Dean doesn’t want to bother even paying lip service to the oft-violated but still on-the-books spending limits in the early primary states. He wants a blowout, and wants it fast. If you were in Dean’s Birkenstocks, you’d want that too.
Bush opted out in 2000 in part so that he could spend whatever he wanted wherever he wanted to. Without that freedom, he wouldn’t have been able to survive the insurgent onslaught of John McCain. Now Dean wants that same freedom to maneuver.
What he really wants to do is carpet-bomb the early primary states with enough organizational muscle and advertising to blow his rivals out of the water early—and thereby avoid a long, potentially crippling war of attrition for the nomination.
Under federal campaign-finance law, candidates who accept matching funds can only spend a certain amount in each state. Campaigns routinely violate the “caps,” but generally make some effort to be at least plausibly in compliance. Otherwise, they might be called out for cheating by rival campaigns. That means boarding staff in adjoining states, renting cars elsewhere, buying TV to beam in from across the border. It’s administratively complex cheating, but required by low limits. In Iowa this time, the limit will be about $1.3 million; about $750,000 in New Hampshire, and so on through the season.
Dean wants to be unshackled from all of that. If need be, he can spend $5 million in Iowa to blow out Gephardt—who absolutely has to win that state to have any chance to move on. Same in New Hampshire, where Kerry trails, and can’t afford to lose. Ditto South Carolina, where Edwards leads in most polls.
I could foresee Dean spent two to three times the amount of his rivals in those and other early states; the theory would be that a quick kill would allow him to replenish his funding from the ranks of the 250,000 Internet donors he has so far.
Dean portrays his desire to abandon the federal system as a noble cause in the fight against an overpowering Republican incumbent. But in the short run it’s something less than that: it’s a bold attempt to obliterate his Democratic rivals—fast.
Last spring, Dean pledged to accept public financing, and said he’d make an issue of it if any of his rivals (Kerry is the only other likely possibility) opted out. “I think most Democrats believe in campaign finance reform,” he said.
But not, as it turns out, Howard Dean. |
