Cymer (CYMI) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: BWAC who wrote (25847)	11/7/2003 9:57:55 AM
From: chomolungma	Read Replies (1) of 25960

Fairly valued at 45 based on what? It can't be earnings. Which average only 55 cents a year thru the entire last cycle. And earnings which are currently nonexistant and have been so all year long. The market doesn't look at the last cycle in valuing Cymer. They are looking at the next cycle when DUV will reach it's "sweet spot." About a year ago, the company said that they thought the market for their products would exceed $1 billion at the top of the next cycle. Since Cymer is still in a dominant market position, it's not hard to see them getting the lion's share of that business. ($800, $900 million?) Now historically, the best semiconductor equipment companies will sell at between 2 and 7 times revenue (I'm using AMAT, KLAC and NVLS the last 9 years taking the average of the high and low price/sales ratios) Even a 3 P/S ratio on $800 million translates to a $68 stock price. A 5 gives you $113. Now I've read enough of your posts to know that you don't believe for a second that will happen, but don't be surprised when there are those out there who don't share your dismal view of the future.

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