Already did my currency (especially RSA) warning post in early 2003, no need to repeat myself.
We need another (new) reason for gold to go up, and I have not seen it yet.
Most goldbugs predict it will be the standard "gloom and doom, collaspe of international economies and currencies"
I'm looking for the exact opposite, overheated economies. China is already overheated, base metals are the indicator, give the rest of the world a chance and we shall get a reminder of what inflation really is. It's not going to happen right now (like daily predictions of $400), but it is a structural thing that will take years. Gold may stay near where it is for another year, but I expect $750-1000 by the end of the decade.
P.S. I still expect higher gold production in 2010 (3000mt+) than today (25343mt), as opposed to the silly predicitions of a drop to 1800mt. My compilations of quarterly results already shows a 3% increase, which would take us over the record of 2604mt in 2001. If gold miners did not even slow production at $250, what do you think they will do at $1000 - mine like crazy ! |
