Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: macavity who wrote (41088)	11/7/2003 3:49:03 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (2) of 74559

The darker side of savings The Japanese may offer a unique perspective. With a relatively closed society and high savings rate, accumulating wealth drove local Equities and Real Estate to extraordinary levels. Some awareness of the situation may have crept in, signified by a move to purchase assets abroad. The aging demographics of Japan may suggest a natural leading indicator for the US, Europe, and perhaps China. The US & Euro boomers, attempting to fund their own retirement savings, may underpin a secular bull market in Global equities and bonds. While J6P may contribute at the margin, the public and private the pension fund managers are at the helm. The lower US savings rate at the individual level & a wider range of global outlets may mitigate the extent of the peak and resulting damage. The US will not follow in Japan's footsteps, but not soley due to the aggressive actions of the FED. The lessened appetite for savings at the individual level will not depress investment returns to the extent of the past decade in Japan. Excess local savings of the Japanese people reinforces their deflationary environment while depressing JGB yields. On the other hand, China may follow Japans footsteps a decade hence, having a somewhat closed society with high internal savings rate.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next