IT Outlook: All.
MO PVT PVTHIGH PVTLOW FLG
$SPX BULL BULL 1062.39 1044.88 -
$OEX BULL BULL 525.880 517.270 -
$COMP BULL BULL 1992.27 1938.22 -
$NDX BULL BULL 1453.46 1414.37 -
$INDU BULL BULL 9903.57 9773.12 -
MO PVT PVTHIGH PVTLOW FLG
$N225 #N/A BEAR 11238.6 10186.8 -
$ETOP BULL BULL 208.580 203.640 -
$FTSE BULL BULL 4389.20 4283.40 -
$DAX BULL BULL 3814.21 3651.77 -
$CAC BULL BULL 3472.83 3372.18 -
MO PVT PVTHIGH PVTLOW FLG
$FVX BULL BULL 35.1900 32.4700 -
$TNX BULL BULL 44.9100 42.8700 -
$TYX BULL BULL 52.9800 51.2100 -
MO PVT PVTHIGH PVTLOW FLG
$USD BULL BULL 94.1300 92.4900 **
MO PVT PVTHIGH PVTLOW FLG
$XAU #N/A BEAR 98.36 93.88 -
$HUI BEAR BEAR 216.16 202.81 -
$AU #N/A BULL 392.60 370.30 -
$AG #N/A BEAR 5.1000 4.9100 -
Nothing really to report here.
US Equity Markets:
Bullish but watch those Pivot levels.
Trend Oscillators are overbought, and Pivot Lows are close by.
It was a small-ranged week and for a lot of the indices it qualifies as an NR7 pattern in weekly charts, which suggests a large movement - up or down !
Non US Equity Markets:
Japan failed to confirm the US Equity market high, so it should be watched as it appears technically the weakest of the group.
Nikkei:
share.esignal.com
Eurostoxx50:
share.esignal.com
Bond Yields:
These are saying up, but we have been whipping in a sideways movement for a while, so I am not taking these to seriously unless we see continued follow through.
USD:
IT_TrendOscillators are o/bt relative to the LT downtrend.
Although signals are IT Bullish that reversal on Friday was serious, and I should have reduced my CHF short at 1.3800 and EUR at 1.1400.
(This is the reason why I put the flag signal).
Any dollar rally over the next few days should be used as an excuse to trim USD longs as I believe that we will mill withing the $USD 91 - 94/5 range for some time, so reducing USD longs at the 94 level is prudent.
The 93-00 to 92-75 level is good dollar support so I would not be in a rush to get rid of all USD long holdings in a rush after what was a large one day move.
I still think that we are basing while LT signals turn to bullish.
Precious Metal Complex:
We are not yet o/sold on the IT timeframe, but these are showing quite bullish short-term patterns.
I will remain bearish these, but do see things that look good in the short term.
I believe more time is needed for any bullish pattern to emerge here, though The Metals look better than The Stocks.
Summary:
There were strong sell-the-news reversals in all these groups on Friday.
Short-term we were at o/sold or o/bt levels that had been developing over the past 2 weeks.
It is this synchronised turn that has sent the spider sense tingling.
Though the ST picture may have stalled, or reversed, the IT picture has not, so all I can do is note it, pay attention and take small positions.
IMO the things to watch for are:
i) Follow through to the big dollar reversal.
ii) Precious metals PM metals resilience despite that of the stocks.
(I am skeptical that we see a Precious Metal revival here and consider this a sign of bullish sentiment, but signals are signals)
Long Bund Dec03 Future - DBZ3.
Short $SPX - ESZ3
Short term trade!
-macavity |
