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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 56.87

-2.3%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (9448)	11/10/2003 6:51:46 AM
From: robert miller	Read Replies (2) of 52153

I posted this on the 50% gains investing board. I believe it is appropiate here also. On 12/22/02 I wrote the following in message #32115. I believe Kos Pharmaceutical fits into the 50% gain category in the next year. This is a small Pharma which has two products in the cholesterol market. These products are Niaspan and Advicor. In the 3rd quarter 2002 they had 3.7% of the new scripts written for the 10 billion plus market. In the 3rd quarter 2002 they were profitable one year ahead of plan. biz.yahoo.com They just signed a marketing agreement with Merck KGaA of Germany to promote and sell Niaspan and Advicor in all markets except North America and Japan. biz.yahoo.com The one thing holding KOSP back is a patent challenge from Barr. I am sure that Merck did serious DD on this issue before they signed the marketing agreement. You can listen to the 3rd conference call which will answer many questions. shareholder.com All of the above is JMO ----------------------------------------------------------- Update, 1. On 12/22/02 KOSP was trading at $19.78. Today it is trading at $44.95. 2. Kos has signed an agreement with Oryx Pharma to sell Niaspan and Advicor in Canada. 3. Earnings have been above all expectations. Kos now estimates 2003 earnings will be $1.40 to $1.50. They have earned $1.03 in the first 3 quarters. Kos estimates 2004 earnings will be $2.10 to $2.20. All of their earnings estimates have been very conservative. 4. Kos has just signed a co-marketing agreement with Takeda to sell Niaspan and Advicor in the U.S. This adds over 1000 sales reps to the previous 550-600. Kos has been targeting specialists and the Takeda sales force will be aimed at the primary care market. 5. The Barr patent challenge is still out there. It is scheduled to go to trial in Dec 2004 with a verdict probably in the 2nd quarter of 2005. Kos has now signed agreements with Merck of Germany, Oryx and Takeda. I am sure all of these companies looked at the patent issue before making these agreements. 6. Kos is estimating they will have 8% of the cholesterol market by 2008. At that time the cholesterol market may be $20 bil. 7. Insiders hold 50%. Institutions hold 49%. The short position is 4 mil. These figures according to Yahoo. 8. Kos has had a good ride but the future potential is much greater in my opinion. bob

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