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Biotech / Medical : NPSP NPS Pharmaceutical

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To: mopgcw who wrote (175)	11/10/2003 7:26:17 PM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) of 363

GS Note: NPS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2003E ($3.41), 2004E ($3.02) In-Line/Neutral (NPSP) $28.26 By 11/17, NPSP expects to release data from a rat cancer study on Preos, an injectable drug in Phase III trials for osteoporosis. The FDA has requested NPSP conduct the rat trial because LLY's Forteo, showed increased bone cancer in rats. The rat data could lead to volatility of NPSP shares. We believe the FDA will probably not view Preos to be superior unless the incidence of rat cancer is drastically lower than that of Forteo, an unlikely scenario in our view. The more relevant data should be Phase III data in humans which are expected in Q1/04. NPSP plans to submit an FDA application in Q3/04. We maintain our In-Line rating based on momentum from two Phase III product candidates, Cinacalcet and Preos, with estimated $0.5B potential each. Positive Phase III data on Cinacalcet from AMGN is expected on Nov 14-18 and FDA approval in 2004 (NPSP receives royalties from AMGN). The risks are failure in development, manufacturing constraints, dependence on partners and patent disputes. Our coverage view remains Neutral.

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