SARS - what next? Message Board

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Pastimes : SARS - what next?

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (782)	11/10/2003 9:40:36 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) of 1070

don't think the chance of SARS not returning for a couple of years is very high. I haven't heard any good arguments on why it won't return in the next month or two. Sequence analysis indicates that some of the isolated events were not isolated at all. Amoy Gardens was not caused by a single index case. Multiple isolates of two very distinct SARS CoVs have been isolated from Amoy Gardens residents and the same two isolates were spread to Taiwan. It also seems that the animal to human jump also involved several isolates and several jumps. It is hard top see why these multiple transmissions will not be repeated. -----Original Message----- From: Niman, Henry L. Sent: Mon 11/10/2003 8:46 PM To: SARS News Cc: Subject: SARS NG What Is the Next Plague? nytimes.com November 11, 2003 (13) What Is the Next Plague? By LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN No one knows when or where the next plague will occur, or whether it will be from a natural or bioterrorist attack. But it is coming.

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