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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (4632)8/11/1997 5:58:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical   of 9285
 
Roger, regarding y2k stocks. While I still believe there is a lot of hype and the problem will not cost $600 billion, I do not believe we are going to see y2k's fall off as a group anytime soon. They may pullback with the general market, but I think we are at least 6 months to 1 yr from the general pullback. My biggest reasons for this are

1) Revenues are just starting to ramp up.
2) The gov. still has still not dealt with the issue. There are many departments that are nowhere close to compliance.
3) There are still many large unknowns about the issue. Usually the selling doesn't come until the news hits. The news may not come until 1999.

I'm still bullish on the y2k's that provide contract programming as I see this business continuing to grow regardless. KEA, CPWR and TSRI while highly valued, are not as overvalued as most of the other y2ks.

While many have hyped some y2k's to ridiculous levels, calling the entire sector a religion could lead many shorts into painful territory. I no longer look at VIAS as a good short. ZITL should be a good short, but the short interest outstanding is too high.

Jim Lundsten
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