Hi EP, On a fundamental change of scenery, I would be an early seller of any and all positions, including CanRoys. Since my fortunate purchase of CanRoys under KastelCo and your tutelage, I do not remember having experienced a dip in their price in the >10% range (probably not even -5%). I do remember seeing Paramount earlier and Provident a few days ago blowing up from afar. My take-away lesson was ‘diversify’.
Now, here we are, the storage tanks all filled up, winter approaching once again for HK, possibly there already in N.America, what do you see for the CanRoys?
Are you thinking of buying Provident? It's shorter reserve life may have something to do with its higher volatility, due to implicitly less cushion for hiccups in financial & energy markets and company operation.
Chugs, Jay
References:
Message 18895990
<<April 30th, 2003
… Bought ...
(d) Provident Energy uk.finance.yahoo.com @ 7.40/shr>>
Message 18952088
<<Hello energyplay, I have done a Royalty Trust Valuation Model …
Provident uk.finance.yahoo.com *
At Friday’s price of CAD 11.26, nominally yield 21.24%, PVE will yield 23.4% per annum. PWI has 51% gas mix of total production. PVE’s apparent under-valuation may be due to its short reserve index. Reserve index @ 5.3 years.
… Now that I have a starter stake of these very strange financial derivatives of dirt and carbon molecules, I plan a doubling, and can live with a doubling again of my current aggregate allocation, but I will diversify by timing, as I will watch, reflect, and perhaps hurriedly buy in a panic, over an elapsed time of maybe a few months.
I will probably refrain from buying any more of Provident unless and until they get their reserve life index up into the 8-10s.>>
Message 18958019
<<May 19th, 2003
… Last Night’s Report: I have accidentally reduced my energy trust allocation from 15% down to 13% of stock allocation by …
… Selling all of my US-traded Provident Energy Message 18895990 at USD 8.55/unit, and having collected I do not yet know what if any distributions, realized at least 16% gain over 20 days;>>
Message 19036838
<<June 16th, 2003
EP, <<What fresh hell is this ?>>
It is people like you teaching folks like me about CanRoys, leading to people like me buying CanRoys from folks like you ;0)
Resolution? Do not know, as in it is not clear what is best for Canada, what can work, and what unintended consequences could mess up power pulse and plug-up energy vein.
I do not have any Provident, having sold sometime ago, but I expect the rest of the CanRoys to run into the same road bump. If new buyers cannot register their units, I must consider holding onto my existing holdings, and have my Canadian wife register an on-shore account.>>
Chugs, Jay |
