Latest update on Jindal from "Real Clear Politics" He is looking good.
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The first set of polls following the Oct 4th primary showed Blanco with a 4-7 point lead on average, but since the third week in October Jindal has moved out to a small, yet solid lead in most polls. Of particular concern for Blanco is her inability to poll over 45% in any survey since mid-October, while Jindal has received 48%-49% in five different polls over the same period.
Jindal's extremely young age and his Indian ancestry have contributed to a higher than normal level of uncertainty in this race, as there were questions whether a 32-year old son of immigrants from India could win in Louisiana. In what may be a reflection of how far the South and the country have moved with regard to race, it appears that Jindal's Indian ancestry is having little effect in this contest. Of course, polls and votes can be two different things.
Like all Democrats in the South, Blanco is going to need massive support from the African-American community to win. However, in a stunning move the black mayor of New Orleans has endorsed Jindal and it appears to be helping him draw more support from the African-American community than is typical for Republicans.
While Blanco does have the support of the very well liked Senator Breaux, it is more than countered by the enthusiastic endorsement of Jindal by popular Gov. Mike Foster.
Last December, Senator Mary Landrieu was able to win 52% - 48%, because she got that huge African-American vote and a very respectable percent of the the white vote.
In that race Landrieu was the more likable and better candidate. In this year's race, Jindal seems to the better and more attractive candidate. "Jindal is being perceived as a progressive, revolutionary Republican figure in the state," says Douglas Brinkley, director of the Eisenhower Center for American Studies at the University of New Orleans.
Landrieu held a 1.5 point lead in our final poll average last year and she went on to a four point win. Jindal currently holds a 4.2 point lead in our latest average and if that can stay over 2% he should be able to pull out the win on Saturday.
We think Jindal will win almost 15% of the black vote and will hold on to enough of the traditional Republican vote to squeeze out a victory and make history.
realclearpolitics.com |
