More on the recent Pew survey.
_________________________________
THE POLLSTERS
Dr. David Hill
Challenging Gallup by going deeper
......Pew just released an extraordinary 150-page report, “Evenly Divided and Increasingly Polarized: 2004 Political Landscape” that not only examines two major Pew surveys taken earlier this year but also marshals longitudinal trend data from tens of thousands of interviews conducted since 1987 and detailed cross-sectional analysis of thousands of Pew surveys conducted in 2002 and 2003.
The big-picture conclusions provide happy news for both parties, befitting Pew’s “independent” or nonpartisan role. The report concludes that Republican identification has surged since Sept. 11, putting the two parties at parity, but that Americans’ positions on many key issues are trending toward the Democratic perspective.
However, it’s not the big-picture conclusions that make this report so fascinating. Instead, it’s the tidbits of crucial information that make this study worth reading.
The greatest GOP gains have come among the most religious Americans. And it’s not only white evangelicals who are rallying to the Republican banner; it’s also white Roman Catholics.
Not surprisingly, Southern states are judged the most religious and most socially conservative states, while New England and Massachusetts are the opposite on both counts. Nevertheless, it’s notable that two Midwestern states, Ohio and Indiana, also rank among the most traditional on Pew’s social-values index.
Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi and West Virginia are singled out as the most “hawkish” states, while Washington and Oregon are most “dovish.”
Arkansas, Iowa and Michigan are identified as the “swing” states with the biggest shift toward the GOP since the last election. Minnesota, Tennessee and Florida also have seen significant movement toward President Bush’s party.
Washington state and California are Democratic or “blue” states where Pew finds a statistically significant shift toward Republican identification.
Hispanic identification with the Democratic Party has declined by five percentage points to 36 points since the last election, while GOP identification has risen three points to 22 percent, a net decline of eight points for the Democrats.
There’s some news here for poll junkies of every political stripe. Clearly, Gallup has a formidable new challenger.
REST AT thehill.com |
