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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
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To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (491632)11/12/2003 5:22:39 PM
From: AK2004  Read Replies (2) of 769670
 
re: on to the build-up of inflationary pressure (market perceptions of the inflationary risk... because it is ALL about perceptions)

thank you for lovely explanation - I am a risk manager and an investment actuary

re: being generally quicker/smarter than equity investors about the impact of such things

hmmmm...... target real rate of return is about 4%-5% and was there for decades now - how did that happened?

re: I never said they were 'sophisticated'...

now that is a direct challenge <gggggggg>

shall we discuss modeling techniques or just interest rate processes - and no not the simple markovian that you can read about on i-net and/or in the textbooks

re: and then they'll force long rates sky high.

I have heard that for years now and while it is a possibility don't bet your life on it. The rates are likely to go up over time but I do not see the reasons for it to deviate from what is already suggested by yield curves.

re: but it is a more complete measure than GDP

maybe you should look up what the word value means?

Anyhow, I'll give one thing that you have at least a point of argument that is not completely absurd. What you are saying is very unlikely even though that some analysts assume that the spike is very likely. I have seen companies considering scenarios with 1000%+ short term rates - so even you can not beat that <gggggggggg>
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