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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: re3 who wrote (2072)	11/12/2003 5:33:16 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) of 110194

JMHO, POG $395 or more is to be breached sooner or later, but I am still convinced the "cartel" want's upbeat FYE2003 figures. So, I am expecting a longs-squeeze by the end of the year. But also expecting a repeat of Dec2001-Feb2002 action. What botheres me is the GUDD, market up action of late. But, if this only is politics, politics will lose against the market. IMHO, Bush rer-election campaib has made a major wrong decision: I would have drawn the broader markets down in 2003 and engeneered a major (bear-) market rally into Summer of 2004. Now, some watchers (and I am beginning to join them) expect a rally into 2005. In this case, I am expecting a (delayed) FED decision towards rates increase (not speaking of quarter points, rather towards 7% repo). Or, in other words, get GWB re-elected, then blame Europe for the woes and get back to reality.

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