re: >>> So, what were you talking about?
that is a $1 million question right here - concept is not well defined. On a micro level it is defined as present value of cash received (discount rate, of course is not very well defined either) or market value where available. Macro level measures are not consistent at all which is not a problem since we should concentrate more on changes rather than current "perception" as you put it earlier.
re: But... the curve, of course, moves. So our expectations are changed on a daily basis
true but over longer periods the real rates are far more stable than many think (long term targets)
re: And, I believe there are some things that are perhaps not given the weight I believe they should have... because they lie further out toward the horizon... and the near and mid-term are given greater weights.
that is really depends on complexity of the model.
re: Things such as the potential for China to eventually move
it may actually prove to be positive for US market since potential market in china is huge.
re: Growth rates in the EU being so anemic.
In the near future only Euro would be able to compete with $. There is always high risk associated with asian markets and that in turn affect the currency.
re: crowding-out
should not it manifest itself through high interest rates? As you pointed we are close to the magic numbers and no sharp increase in rates yet.
re: Some economists that I respect, have argued that when our federal deficits move to say, 5.5% or 6% of GNP
had recently spoke to leading economist from one of the major investment banks. He said jokingly that so far his record 100% consistent - he was never right even once. He also added that he is lucky that he does not have to make money from his own predictions <g>
re: long bonds in major bear over past year & long rates rising, commodities rising, especially base and precious metals...
nothing that was not expected and to be honest I personally expected much much worse
re: >>> Now add in war and a bitter divide in politics, and the possibility for exogenous shocks to the system.
can not imagine any shock to the system that would be close to 911. I think Bush is doing the right thing
re: >>> So, how would you manage these risks? <GGG>
hey, don't ask me - I deal on micro level - never crossed $1 trillion under management yet.
In general I belive in free market approach. Things tend to balance out.... |
