As I understand economic theory, nobody can actually predict which way the markets will go on any given day. They follow what economists call a "random walk."
But, given the nature of markets, they will either go up or down.
So, on any given day, you can guess "up" or "down", not dissimilar to flipping a coin.
Now, given the enormous number of people who are engaged in the coin flip process every day, on any given day half will be right and half will be wrong.
And, over a period of time, some people will have extraordinary runs at guessing "right" many times in a row.
Those people we call geniuses. We worship them. We hang on their every word, hoping that they can instill us with the wisdom of guessing "right" many days in a row.
George Soros, once upon a time, was one of those people. He almost single-handedly tanked the global economy in 1998. But, the US Plunge Protection Team bailed us out, and he's never gotten over it. In many more ways than one. |
