Republican Pollsters Claim: Dean Can Win
moore-info.com
A recent article by David Brooks left readers with the distinct impression that Republican pollsters are all of the opinion that Howard Dean cannot possibly beat George Bush. We regret that he didn’t check with us first, as it is our belief that Dean has the potential to be a formidable candidate who could give the President a very difficult race.
The conventional wisdom that has some Republicans giddy about a potential Dean candidacy is not only misguided, it is counterproductive. Writing off a candidate like Dean by selectively sorting statistical gobble-de-gook and mixing it into a broth of “empirical” sociological evidence ignores the political realities of our time.
Howard Dean can win because he believes in what he is saying, because he can semi-legitimately spin his record as Governor into one of fiscal conservatism, and because he comes across as if he actually cares about people. We don’t know what the issues will be 14 months from now. Perhaps the economy will be rolling and the President will be soaring. If that’s the case, no one can beat him.
But there is the potential for the economy to remain sluggish and stagnant and conditions in the Middle East are impossible to predict. ld these situations remain status quo or worsen, America will be looking for someone new, someone fresh, someone who can shake America out of the doldrums and reinvigorate the body politic. Dean would provide solutions and excitement where the other Democrats, while perhaps polished and attractive, are not as convincing because they don’t have the perceived conviction of a Howard Dean.
Furthermore, if one makes the case that Bush could be vulnerable to the poofy John Kerry or the scintillating (yawn) Bob Graham, how can anyone write off Howard Dean? Because Graham can win Florida, he can win the White House? Well, Dr. Dean knows a little something about health care and there are a few folks in that state who have some stake in the issue. And let’s not forget the President’s noble efforts to reform Social Security, a demagogue’s dream in the Sunshine State.
Howard Dean has many qualities that make him a strong candidate, but the best way to judge his ability to win is simply to do the math. Below is a list of states we believe Howard Dean could win. We have broken them down into three columns. The first column is basically the Democrat base. The second column consists of Democrat leaners/swing states. The third column is Republican leaning states where Democrats have won in the recent past and could do so again.
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