Another interesting article for climate science fans:
nationalpost.com
Nyet to Kyoto
The Kyoto Protocol will likely soon die on the steps of the Kremlin, as Russia legislators are no longer fooled by its 'illusionary' benefits and the unrealistic emission levels it sets out for the country
Paul Webster
Financial Post
Thursday, November 13, 2003
With so much of the fate of the Kyoto agreement riding on his work, you'd think the Russian government would give Alexander Nakhutin a better deal. Russia's chief greenhouse gas emissions forecaster currently works out of the Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, a mostly empty, crumbling building on Moscow's outskirts, with a pack of ragged dogs slumbering under the portico.
Down a lightless corridor and up a flight of dank stairs, the door to Nakhutin's lab swings open on a bright surprise: There's a fresh coat of paint, lots of light, and plenty of high-end computer equipment. Sadly, however, the gear isn't for Nakhutin's research. It's for his new printing company, he says. "My business income subsidizes my research budget," the Russian Academy of Science section head explains. "Without it, I couldn't do any science."
Unorthodox as his funding methods may seem to Western eyes, when it comes to global warming research, Nakhutin is a very heavy hitter. In a study released last year, Nakhutin found that through five years of rapid economic expansion since 1999, Russian greenhouse gas emissions have ballooned as much as 13% annually. If Nakhutin's projections are correct -- and he is one of only a very few researchers with access to the best Russian industrial data -- by the time the Kyoto treaty is due to be implemented in 2008, Russian carbon emissions will be 6% greater than they were in 1990, or 30% higher than originally envisioned.
This is a forecast which spells deep trouble for Kyoto planners at the headquarters of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Geneva. That's because the entire Kyoto concept is structured around predictions that when Kyoto is implemented in 2008, Russian greenhouse gas emissions levels will be 20% below levels in 1990 -- the baseline year for Kyoto emissions targets, and the last year in which the Soviet economy operated at full throttle.
Kyoto planners believe that between 1991 and 1999, the collapse of the Russian economy reduced greenhouse gas emissions there by 39%, a figure they've always said will be only partially offset by Russian economic growth before 2008. According to their projections, after 2008, Russia will be in a position to make billions by selling "carbon credits" to Europe, Canada and Japan on the carbon trading marketplace at the centre of the Kyoto concept.
Kyoto planners say the prospect of billions in profits from carbon credit sales will persuade Russia to join the Kyoto club. And they say countries with emissions greater than they had in 1990 will be able to meet their Kyoto emissions reduction targets by offsetting their excess emissions levels with pollution credits purchased from Russia.
If Russia's "carbon surplus" proves illusory, though, the supply of carbon credits available on the Kyoto pollution market will be very tight. That's going to make things difficult for many countries hoping to purchase credits to offset pollution increases since 1990.
"Can it work without Russia? That's the key question," says Stephane Willems, a Russian greenhouse gas inventory specialist with the International Energy Agency in Paris. Richard Baron, a carbon trading specialist with the OECD in Paris thinks that if Russia's emissions are not well below 1990 levels in 2008, the all-important carbon market will at the very least suffer "a radical change in expectations."
While Nakhutin's research upends Kyoto planners' projections in Geneva, where it really hits home is in the Kremlin, which is under heavy pressure from Kyoto planners, and politicians in Europe and Japan, to ratify the agreement. Due to a legal stipulation requiring that Kyoto must be ratified by countries responsible for at least 55% of the greenhouse emissions from industrialized nations in 1990, the Kyoto agreement cannot survive without Russian ratification.
According to Nakhutin, when Kremlin officials reviewing the case for Russian ratification got wind of his findings, they expressed "worry," and demanded details. "We have a full-scale carbon emission inventory underway right now," he says. "The government wants this information for a decision on whether or not to ratify Kyoto."
Nakhutin's results won't be in for a while yet, but even so, enthusiasm for Kyoto in the Kremlin is fading fast. Back in the spring of 2002, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to press the Russian Parliament to ratify Kyoto. But in the face of accumulating evidence Kyoto planners in Geneva failed to anticipate a major boom in Russian carbon emissions when they projected Russian emissions 20% below 1990 levels in 2008, the Kremlin has been looking hard at its alternatives.
Last March, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development concluded that ratifying Kyoto was not in Russia's interest. In June, Putin's top economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov, told reporters that Kyoto offers Russia only "illusory" benefits, and would force Russia to undertake expensive restructuring. "The U.S. decided that these expenses were excessive," Illarionov said. "I'm not convinced that Russia can afford expenses that the world's richest country couldn't afford."
At an international climate change conference in Moscow in September, President Putin joked that global warming might benefit Russia. Then he said Russia would have to continuing investigating whether or not to ratify Kyoto. "The decision will be taken at the end of that work, and in conformity with Russia's national interests," he said. A few days later, Mr. Illarionov said he doubted Kyoto's "effectiveness."
Although Dr. Nakhutin's studies are still underway, the Kremlin likely already knows enough about rising Russian greenhouse gas emissions to realize Kyoto planners got their estimates wrong. Russian economic growth was 10% in 2001. In 2002 it was 6%. Seven per cent growth is expected this year. President Putin says the economy may double before 2010, and triple before 2020.
Under these conditions, it's no surprise Russian views on Kyoto are themselves facing a climate change.
In an assessment of the case for Kyoto ratification published last year, the Kremlin acknowledged that Russian greenhouse gas emissions are rising fast, and that energy consumption per unit of GDP will have to be reduced by 36% over five years if greenhouse gas emission levels are going to be 20% below 1990 levels in 2008. Last May, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov raised this energy conservation figure to 50%.
At the Russian Ministry of Energy, just across Red Square from the Kremlin, Oleg Plujnikov, the Ministry's deputy head of ecology, says energy efficiency is now "mandatory" for Russia. Unfortunately for Kyoto planners, however, Russian energy efficiency specialists like Igor Bashmatov, director of Moscow's Center for Energy Efficiency (CENEf), say such pronouncements are disingenuous at best.
With funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Bashmatov carefully reviewed the Russian government's actual spending on energy efficiency and found it disastrously below official pledges.
According to the CENEf, for the period between 2002 and 2005, the Russian government has only allocated 14% of the funds it promised to energy efficiency. Worse, says Bashmatov, only 4% of that money is spent directly on efficiency: the rest goes on subsidies to increase oil and gas production. "The best indicator of commitment is allocation of funds," he says, "but we've never really seen anything more than verbal support."
According to Bashmatov, negligible political commitment means the 36% increase in Russian energy efficiency needed to hit Kyoto targets is out of the question: In the face of massive economic growth and emerging evidence of a huge boom in Russian greenhouse gas emissions, the Kremlin, it seems, has abandoned its own case for Kyoto ratification.
As long as this remains the case, when it comes to the Kyoto treaty, the rest of the world might as well save its breath.
Without Russian participation, Kyoto -- as we know it -- will be just another grandiose idea consigned by restless Russians to the dustbin of history.
Paul Webster is a writer who has reported on climate change issues in Russia for Science and New Scientist.
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