At $15.50, Elan would have a $6B market cap, assuming no additional dilution nor options exercise.
If half of Antegren is worth that much to you, why not buy Biogen's half? BGEN is about $5.78B in market cap, you get Avonex for free, pipeline for free, manufacturing for free, and you get economies of scale from the merger with IDEC.
I realize that you currently can buy ELN at two-thirds discount to your eventual "value". Buying Biogen instead gives you Avonex, net cash value, and profits now. In other words, the two-thirds is solid and low-risk, and you still get the one-third wild card.
Looks like far the better, and safer, way to invest in Antegren. |
