Hi Don,
I've combined 2 of your tables for discussion purposes.
By adding stock price (and % change) to the earnings
table we can create implied forward PEs.
I thought this table would look worse then it is but
I would expect PEs to be on the high end since we are
coming out of a downturn.
NVLS and AMAT seem pricey since I doubt they can sustain
the growth rate implied for more then a year or 2.
EDIT: I'm not good at formatting this data on SI, as SI
really sucks for importing this type of information.
Columns are Symbol, 11/02 Earnings est Cy, Ny,
11/03 Earnings est Cy, Ny, Earnings Ch Cy, Ny,
Stock price 10/02, 11/03, % change in price,
implied PE on 11/03 based on Ny earnings.
- 11/5/2002 11/7/2003
CMOS (1.26) (0.69) (1.49) (0.38) (0.23) 0.31 6.3 16.73 166 NA
EGLS (2.94) (2.24) (1.89) (1.00) 1.05 1.24 1.21 4.18 245 NA
FSII (1.21) (0.21) 0.39 1.00 0.39 2.36 5.94 152 15.23
SMTL 0.04 0.22 0.63 0.18 0.63 4.29 11.5 168 18.25
WFR (0.36) 0.38 0.50 0.61 0.86 0.23 4.7 11.85 152 19.43
BRKS (1.52) (0.19) 0.08 1.13 1.60 1.32 8.95 26.47 196 23.42
PLAB 0.12 0.22 (0.20) 0.73 (0.32) 0.51 7.9 22.15 180 30.34
LRCX 0.04 0.43 0.32 1.00 0.28 0.57 6.72 30.76 358 30.76
PHTN 0.65 0.12 0.67 1.27 0.02 1.15 16.15 40.9 153 32.20
KLAC 0.64 1.09 0.91 1.74 0.27 0.65 26.15 59.53 128 34.21
LTXX (0.76) (0.33) (0.46) 0.44 0.30 0.77 3.33 15.77 374 35.84
COHU (0.13) (0.19) 0.01 0.58 0.14 0.77 9.99 21.11 111 36.40
ASYT (0.76) 0.24 (1.02) 0.50 (0.26) 0.26 3.95 18.34 364 36.68
DPMI (1.21) 0.28 (2.53) 0.58 (1.32) 0.30 16.07 24.76 54 42.69
UTEK (0.78) (0.26) 0.21 0.75 0.99 1.01 6.77 32.95 387 43.93
VECO (0.11) 0.26 0.11 0.60 0.22 0.34 9.4 26.93 186 44.88
ASML (0.22) 0.15 (0.33) 0.41 (0.11) 0.26 5.28 18.56 252 45.27
HELX (0.49) (0.09) (0.11) 0.45 0.38 0.54 7.48 21.04 181 46.76
TER (1.18) (0.29) (0.59) 0.48 0.59 0.77 7.22 25.16 248 52.42
CYMI 0.38 0.45 (0.32) 0.89 (0.70) 0.44 16.74 48.73 191 54.75
AMAT 0.18 0.35 0.13 0.46 (0.05) 0.11 10.41 25.25 143 54.89
ATMI (0.31) 0.05 (0.19) 0.42 0.12 0.37 12.44 24.68 98 58.76
NVLS 0.27 0.43 0.21 0.71 (0.06) 0.28 20.17 43.7 117 61.55
MTSN (2.10) (0.47) (0.41) 0.22 1.69 0.69 1.65 15.06 813 68.45
KLIC (1.41) (0.81) (1.09) 0.19 0.32 1.00 1.95 16.35 738 86.05
TOTAL (14.43) (1.11) (7.47) 13.80 6.96 14.91 |
