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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (2184)11/15/2003 4:43:48 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
IMHO
1. We are going towards deflation which is going to be much worse than what Japan has been having. US has much higher levels of debt, so bad debt deflation is upon us.
2. Greenspan will never raise interest rates. Someone else, who will come after him, will. I don't know when.
3. Credit will cease to be easily available regardless of interest rates because of high risks in falling asset prices environment.
Am I too bearish?

EDIT: I think giant USD carry trade is in its infancy. Very few people in the world do not trust USD. For instance most third world people hold their savings in USD.

EXACTLY
100% like it is.

It is very very possible that Greenspan NEVER raise rates again. He may try and retire first (in June of next year) praying that the economy does not stall and the next person raises and Greenspan will attempt to absolve himself of the mess that he was 90% responsible for.

M
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