China's Hu, a Year in Power, Finds His Feet
Fri November 14, 2003 10:52 PM ET
By Benjamin Kang Lim BEIJING (Reuters) -
Editorial Note: Al-Jazeerah publishes this article about the Chinese leader, Hu Jintao, as a background information. It's not intended to praise or criticize him or his new administration.
Chinese Communist Party chief Hu Jintao spent a decade preparing for high office with a career that marked him as cautious, colorless and, perhaps, capable.
After a year in power, Hu has surprised many critics, weathering two major crises with a combination of decisiveness and determination while shadow-boxing to erode the power of his still influential predecessor, Jiang Zemin.
All the while, he has carefully avoided a political showdown.
"As Hu has not yet fully consolidated power, he does not want to trigger a direct and serious confrontation with Jiang," said Kou Chien-wen, a China expert at Taiwan's Institute of International Relations who is working on a biography of Hu.
Hu has chiselled away at party traditions and Jiang's policies, cultivated allies among the other top leaders and left no opening for his chief rival -- the Jiang ally, Vice President Zeng Qinghong.
Hu, named party chief on November 15, 2002 at a congress that saw the first smooth transition of power in Communist Chinese history, now aims to survive through the 17th congress in 2007.
"If Hu is re-elected, Zeng will no longer be a real threat," Kou said.
Hu, 60, also took over as state president in March this year, but Jiang remains chief of the Central Military Commission, which commands the 2.5 million-strong People's Liberation Army.
In a sign of Jiang's residual influence after a 13-year reign, his protege Zeng has taken on a military portfolio and become point man on Hong Kong, sources told Reuters.
SHIFTING POWER BALANCE
But the balance of power in the party's all-powerful nine-seat Politburo Standing Committee -- a Jiang stronghold at the time of the leadership succession -- has quietly shifted.
Standing Committee members on Hu's side or in neutral territory are now in the majority, eroding Jiang's grip on the body, sources said. Analysts said Hu had emerged stronger from two major crises -- an outbreak of the deadly flu-like SARS virus and Hong Kong's biggest street protest since 1989 -- and had largely succeeded in spinning himself the image of a man of the people.
"Hu enjoys the support of the people. It'll be difficult for Jiang to dethrone him unless he fumbles big time," said a Chinese political scientist who spoke on condition of anonymity.
All of this has taken place without threatening the maxim of Communist China -- that the power of the party, which has monopolized politics since 1949, must be preserved.
"There are two preconditions for reform -- the Communist Party's position as ruling party, and socialism should not change," said Wang Yukai, a professor at the National School of Administration.
Hu has moved to make the party's elite, 24-member Politburo more transparent and flirted with political, media and judicial reforms to help curb corruption and make officials more accountable, but has played within the party boundaries.
His dramatic decision to report openly on the SARS epidemic, followed by China's unprecedented disclosure of a submarine accident, spawned brief hopes of prolonged transparency and more radical reforms.
But authorities continue to jail cyber-dissidents and pro-democracy activists and have gagged academic debate on constitutional change.
ART FORM
In China, power struggles at the top are an art -- subtlety over showdown. Hu has proved an artful tactician.
He ordered study sessions on the constitution, ostensibly a push to strengthen the rule of law. But analysts said it also could be seen as a swipe at Jiang for clinging on to the top military job in violation of the constitution.
"Jiang cannot find fault with Hu for stressing the constitution," said a Chinese political commentator who writes under the pseudonym, Liang Kezhi.
"But every time Hu stresses the constitution, it makes Jiang uncomfortable all over because, according to the constitution, the party commands the gun," he said. Hu also scrapped the staple send-off and welcoming ceremonies for Chinese leaders, which for years brought out all the top hierarchy for obligatory smiles and handshakes when the top man went abroad.
Analysts said the move could allow Hu to avoid the awkward dilemma of whether to attend when Jiang went abroad one day.
"The nation's leaders are not supposed to send off subordinate officials going abroad. Hence, attendance could make people think Jiang is still number one. But absence could be interpreted as disrespect," said a government official.
On the diplomatic front, China was sharply criticized in early 2003 for not doing enough to rein in unruly neighbor North Korea in a nuclear crisis.
Now it is enjoying kudos for bringing Pyongyang to the negotiating table, a break from its traditional policy of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs.
MISSILE MENACE
And Hu so far has appeared less antagonistic toward rival Taiwan as it heads into an election year, although China still regards steps taken by President Chen Shui-bian as provocative.
In contrast, Jiang's China menaced the democratic island with missile tests and war games ahead of presidential elections in 1996 and delivered harsh rhetoric through then premier Zhu Rongji ahead of polls in 2000.
"Hu and Jiang may have differences in tactics but not in strategy," Kou said.
Pushing his populist image, Hu shook hands with doctors and nurses battling SARS, huddled with a Mongolian herdsman in a tent in freezing weather and spent a total of $3.63 on two days of meals on one official trip.
Analysts see this as an attempt to shore up his political legitimacy and set himself apart from Jiang, who was regarded by many as aloof and showy.
Hu has also used a crackdown on corruption, as well as the SARS crisis, to chip away at Jiang's power base. Cheng Weigao, former party boss of the northern province of Hebei who was close to Jiang, was detained on corruption charges. Hu sacked Health Minister Zhang Wenkang, once Jiang's personal doctor, for covering up the extent of SARS.
But official investigations into a property scandal surrounding Shanghai tycoon Zhou Zhengyi, who is reportedly close to Jiang's proteges, have yielded little.
"Hu cannot exceed what Jiang can tolerate," said the first Chinese political scientist.
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